วิเคราะห์แนวโน้มของอียู ประจำวันที่ 11-15 ตุลาคม 2553

วันศุกร์
แนวต้านอยู่ที่ Fibonacci 61.8-38.2% ถ้าไม่ผ่านจะวิ่งตามลูกศรที่ผมได้ลากไว้
ถ้าผ่านได้ขึ้นไปทดสอบ High เมื่อวานอีกครั้ง

วันพุธ
วันนี้ให้ดูที่ เส้น Resistance Trendline และ High ที่ 1.4008 และ 1.4028 ถ้าขึ้นไปทดสอบแล้วไม่ผ่าน ให้ Sell ทันที

วันอังคาร
อียูได้กลับไปทดสอบจุดสูงสุดของวันศุกร์อีกครั้งและไม่สามารถดีดตัวขึ้นไปได้ จึงกลับตัวลงมาตั้งแต่เมื่อคืนนี้ และเช้านี้ลงมาทดสอบจุดต่ำสุดที่่ 1.3844 ราคาได้ดีดตัวขึ้นมาปรับฐานเล็กน้อย
คำแนะนำในวันนี้
แนวต้านอยู่ที่ เส้น EMA 50 100 200 กราฟ 30 นาที - 1 ชั่วโมง
และ ระดับ Fibonacci 38.2-61.8%
 แนวรับอยู่ที่ จุดต่ำสุดเก่าของวันศุกร์ 1.3833 ถ้าผ่านได้จะทะลุลงไปที่ระดับ Fibonacci 161.8 %

สำหรับสมาชิก 9professionaltrader สามารถอ่านเพิ่มเติมได้ที่ http://www.thaiforexschool.com
วันจันทร์
During the past week, the European Central Bank maintained its stance of withdrawing policy stimulus from the European financial system at its meeting that concluded on Thursday, unlike the Fed. These actions helped boost the euro briefly above $1.40. However, immediately after the payrolls figure, the ECB President Jean-Paul Trichet, said in an interview in Brussels that the “euro is too strong today”, limiting the upside in EUR/USD. Moreover, data from the Eurozone is positive, showing recovery signals especially in Germany and France, which account for more than half of the overall European economy. However, Fitch Ratings downgraded Ireland to “A+” from “AA” and Moody’s has placed Ireland on negative outlook. Greek debt and deficit will be revised up for 2006-9. Finally, the IMF meetings this weekend present leaders with an opportunity to express their views on the global economic outlook and traders should beware of the headline risk involved.
Overall consensus: Bullish. Stricter ECB monetary policy and better data from the Eurozone are expected to boost the Euro.
Here’s an outlook fot the major events that await the Euro this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. In the euro area it will be a quiet week in terms of data, with the most interesting release being inflation and industrial production.

Monday, October 11
In the week ahead ISEE will show the French industrial production figure for August. After the increase of 0.9% last month, for the Europe’s second largest economy a drop is expected to occur this time with an overall consensus of 0.3%.
At the 2010 Mortimer Caplin Conference of the World Economy, the ECB President Trichet is due to speak about banking in central banks. The event is organised by the Miller Center of Public Affairs, University of Virginia, Washington DC. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues.

Tuesday, October 12
The ECB President will hold another speech. This time he will be at the Economic Club, in New York.

Wednesday, October 13
A measure of the health of the broader Euro-zone economy comes out this week when August Industrial Production (IP) data for the Euro-zone become available.  Although Germany and France already released their figures, the EU Industrial Production figure still tends to surprise and move the Euro. Last month’s light rise of 0.1% was a reflection of the previous month’s drop. A higher rise of 0.7% is expected this time.
Thursday, October 14

Following the rate decision with its optimistic sentiment, the European Central Bank is to publish its monthly bulletin, containing the data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest monetary policy decision. The report also contains detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank’s viewpoint. This could boost the Euro.
Later in the day, Buba President Weber is due to deliver a speech titled “Fiscal Policy challenges from the Economic and Financial Crisis” at the event organized  by the Initiative New Social Market Lobby, in Berlin. Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council Apr 2004 – Apr 2012, is believed to be one of the most influential members of the council. The speech is of particular interest in terms of future monetary policy.
Friday, October 15
Finishing of the week for the Eurozone is final inflation data for September. Prices were flat in July and August, but a slight increase is expected in September, though inflation remains on the rise on a year-over-year basis. This figure is considered the Eurozone’s most important inflation data because it is used as the central bank’s inflation target. However, it tends to have a relatively mild impact as the CPI Flash Estimate and German Prelim CPI are released about 15 days earlier. The annually adjusted rise of 1.8% for the overall CPI is expected to be confirmed, as well as the Core CPI – 1.0%.
The Technical View
The Euro has been tearing higher in very steep up channel; its progress has been halted for the time being at the 1.4020-1.4030 Resistance level. Above this area major resistance sits at 1.4193-1.4213. We expect a brief respite early next week with the 1.3635-1.3645 area providing key support the bulls need to maintain to keep the strength.
What’s Important?
A couple of speeches by Trichet could have an effect on the market in the week, important to look for Trichets sentiment about the strength in the euro. The CPI and Industrial production data is likely to have an impact in the week as the main news events. Technically the very steep bullish channel remains very much intact.

Key Words

Trichet, CPI, Industrial Production, 1.4020-1.4040 Resistance

Credits:http://www.pivotfarm.com/blog/2010/10/10/the-week-ahead-for-the-eur-october-11th-15th/